近来,海内外对中国经济增长的质疑越来越多,其中,以美国匹兹堡大学经济学教授Thomas G.Rawski为代表,他发表了《What’S Happening to China’S GDP Statis-tics?》和《China’s GDP Statistics A Case ofCaveat Lector?》这两篇文章,质疑1997年至2000年中国GDP增长数字的真实性。Raws-ki的文章发表后,旋即被到处引用和转载,成为西方媒体的关注热点。英国的《金融时报》、《经济学家》,美国的《新闻周刊》。
At present,Econometric models have found a wide range of applications on economic research.However their reliability can be easily understand by intend or unintended abuses.No doubt,econometric models have the advantage of revealing the numerical relationships on economic phenomena,but there exist certain fatal flaws on these econometric models,which if not treated properly will lead to unexpected mistakes in economic forecast or analysis.In this article some common flaws in econmetric models are investigated and some useful measures are suggested for their improvement.
